The activity of enterprises has qualitatively changed under the conditions of competitive environment. Functioning of enterprises in conditions of entry of the country in WTO, which is the uncertainty medium, suggests search and development of their own development trends. In order that business organizations could work efficiently under the conditions of growing competition, permanent investigation of all sides of their activity is necessary in the context of external environment management.
In this connection enterprises should evaluate, control and model their economic security, thus, promoting the efficient functioning of contemporary entrepreneurial business.
The model of sustainable development of business institute includes risk management in the form of a three-stage procedure complex:
1. The first stage of risk management process is the objective formulation for administration of a concrete form of entrepreneurial business. It is our opinion that the determination of the objective can stipulate the preservation of their resources fully or partially and the receipt of expected income in full at supportable risk level. The objective is the model of the future outcome of entrepreneurial activities, and it involves the selection of a specific complex of resources and methods of their use for the obtainment of the required outcome at the causes and risk factors under the question. Besides, characteristics and properties of that outcome must be specified.
We allow two subsequent compromises at the objective formation:
— between the desired and possible;
— between resources hypothetical in use in their definite interrelation and condition, wherein it is possible to implement the selected model of risk management.
The first compromise is resolution of choice problems, the second refers to problems of resource management of limited resources.
The objective is always definite, even if has elements of uncertainty. Among other things, the objective of risk management is an outcome which is necessary to receive: profit, win, income.
The outcome of the first stage is the establishment of the initial (starting) risk level, the risk in the idea, intention, guessed solution. This risk has a considerably high level, as it definitely without notice of business event execution on its analysis and compensation.
Accordingly, a problem is a starting point in any management activity, in development and decision making, and objective formulation is the first formal representation on the direction of risk manager’s activity.
2. The second stage of risk management includes phases of discovery, identification, choice of factors and risk assessment, as well as the analysis of received variants for decision making.
The basis of risk identification is, in our opinion, peculiarity and specifity of intended business activity and business medium. It is desirable to have a collection of certain risk factors, surrounding the enterprise, to know causes of their appearance. It is ideal, of course, to have comprehensive and reliable information on all risk factors, but it is usually impossible. A complex of revealed risk factors allows to build a set of risk factors with respect to certain activity form.
After the detection of risk factors we implement the identification of risk factors in order to reveal the area of basic risk factors, which are the most dangerous for this activity type or made decision and which risk factors are managed, and which are not.
We solve two tasks based on the identification:
— the first task provides the attribution of risk to one of three main categories, which are common or known risks, foreseeable and unforeseeable risks;
— the settlement of the second task is aimed at the building of classification risk schemes with account of intended use of business organizations and specifity of their activity.
Risk degree evaluation is executed only after the identification and attribution of one of three categories. The basis of assessment is a model matching of risk valuation — determined models are applied for known risks, random and stochastic models are used at the consideration of foreseeable risk, and the methods of statistical modeling and models of expert evaluation are used for unforeseeable risks.
Correct risk assessment allows us to imagine the volume of possible losses objectively and project the way to their prevention or decrease, and secure their refund in case of failure of loss prevention.
The assessment of variants and decision making on the capital risk investment may be accomplished by means of correlation of expected profit and the amount of potential losses based on the test of goodness of fit, optimality or adaptivity depending on the model of decision taken. The outcome of analysis stage and risk estimation is a real estimation of its degree and consequences. This risk is of lower level according to the order of importance owing to the readiness of business subjects to possible emergence of risk investments.
Thus, we may deduce that when the task list is set, risk manager proceeds to the organization of intention of objective fulfillment, as well as a generalized outlook of the whole purposeful organization activity upon reaching the objective. The operation is born in such a way, which is a notion, used to denote any groups of actions in favor of achievement of intended objective. We consider that he concept of operation of risk manager should be gradually improved before the decision on its realization. During legal implementation the decision is turned into a development program, in the system of subgoals, plans, tasks, and criteria of their implementation. A risk manager assigns tasks to divisional managers in his decisions.
3. Practical realization of decision accepted and brought to to executor. We can use the received risk appraisal as bench marks for the third stage of risk management, which is the elaboration of measures on the decrease in risk.
The initial phase at that stage is strategy selection and risk management technique. In that case the strategy determines the direction and utilization methods of resources for the achievement of risk management objective, and the technique is a set of rules of thumb and methods of risk management for the limitation of risk extent in certain conditions.
We make use of both stereotyped, and original decisions in the selection of phase of means and methods for the risk management, which contain economically feasible recommendation and measures, focused on the decrease of initial level risk to the supportable level. Besides, choice of risk management methods often depends on the psychological perception factor of risk management decisions by the subject.
We suppose that the completion phase of risk management is a preplanning on the decrease of risk degree and magnitude. The program is a set of control actions in the form of anti-risk measures and required volumes and financing sources, specific executors and execution periods. Developed policy, procedures and rules serve as an additional identification point at the implementation of risk management. Policy formulation will be presented by the general management of activity and decision making for an extended period, thus, relieving the objective fulfillment of risk management. The procedures will be the substantiation of policy in this case. They represent a programmed decision and describe the sequence of operations, which should be taken in any specific situation. The procedure will abridge the performance freedom of the subject by a limited number of alternatives, as we work out principles, which completely exclude all kinds of free choices, determine, what exactly should be done by a subject management in the specific situations of risk management.
The concluding phase of the third stage is .equally important. That is the organization of the planned program accomplishment, execution control over the planned program, valuation and analysis of the risk decision outcome.
The accomplishment of the planned program foresees the association of experts, which will jointly implement it in terms of definite rules and procedures.
The execution control over the planned program will be applied towards the timely detection, as well as prevention of major modifications in the risk level, and determination of its cause.
The analysis and evaluation of the outcome of risk capital investment will be realized based on the information, periodicity, structure, and form of recording of which becomes established on a rather long period. The following conclusions can be made from the valuation outcome of real decision effectiveness:
— the problem has been eliminated completely and its resolution has not induced any negative consequences;
— the problem has been eliminated partially, but the negative consequences have not been detected; as well;
— the problem has been eliminated partially, but new difficulties have emerged;
— the problem has not been eliminated, its implementation has caused new sufficient difficulties;
In case we detect that the received risk level valuations do not exceed the threshold of the acceptable risk, then recommendations on the term of realization of another control cycle can be given. Otherwise, we will need the elaboration of measures, eliminate or, at least, weaken the negative effects of risk manifestation. Supposing that proposed solution is still unjustifiably risky after the adoption of all measures on the weakening of risk level, the experts may advise to reject it.
After the development of risk management model its organization is necessary, in which a complex of measures, directed on the creation and development of the management system, should be foreseen, the provision of its efficient operation at the realization of both single phases and a technological process as a whole.
For this purpose we anticipate a vertical separation of complex technology phases on the level of organizational arrangement of management system on a priority basis of phases in the achievement of an objective risk management and a horizontal separation at the implementation of a single technology phase on the account of determination of functions and spheres of authority actions of departments and service and the statement of concrete objectives to them.
The organization of risk management with account of these events will be carried out on the hierarchical approach, and consequently, the risk management process will be carried out on two subdominant levels: performing and coordinating.
It is natural that managerial control takes the key role in the problem solving of risk management. Its competence includes: the establishment of supportable risk level for the given period of time, determination of the risk management objective, the program of validation of mitigation measures on the extent of risk, decision making on the source of their realization in an emergency, as well as qualifying and certifying the acceptability of the achieved risk level on the closing stage.
Command control procedures should be performed on the coordinating level, they will coordinate the work of all risk management links in accordance with the accepted objectives. The subdivision core is a «coordination service», which responsibilities include the coordination functioning of risk management process. We shall introduce the following in the cumulative actions:
— terms of work performance, forms and volumes of the outcome performance,
— the assignment of composition and the procedure order of analysis and evaluation of risk degree,
— preparation of necessary normative and reference information,
— collection of current data,
— organization of measures development on the risk reduction,
— bringing of the elaborated statements to the organization authorities, and organization of anti risk measures after their approval.
There are two basis function on the performance level of the expert group:
— permanent monitoring of risk level, originating in the course of business activity;
— management of risk measure, associated with the preparation process of decisions and correction of the uncontrolled outcome.
Herewith, the objective of «risk level monitoring» function is a timely revelation of negative trends of changes in the external environment for the succeeding of their neutralization.
The risk level monitoring function performs the risk analysis procedure. Measures, which weaken the negative consequences of risk manifestation may be timely elaborated subsequent to the results of such analysis. There may be a recommendation to decline the received decision because of unreasonably risk.
According to our reckoning, both these functions should be executed on the performance level by:
— groups of monitoring and risk analysis,
— groups of anticrisis measure planning,
— groups of monitoring in crisis conditions.
All groups are connected by information flows among themselves. The sufficient level of methodical and instrumental maintenance should be achieved by the team performance of advanced and methodical development, which orders or develops models, techniques, programmed and algorithmic media. Information support of the management process should be supported by management service and actualization of normative and reference database.
The examined model of risk management is quite considerable in terms of volume of financial investments into it, as risk mitigation on large enterprises always requires noticeable expenses on its investigation and preliminary adoption of defense measures. Small-scale enterprises often have no such power for the risk management in such volume. We believe that is such cases own efforts of the risk manager, financial managers on the organization or services of specialized consulting firms are enough. But anyhow, we suppose that a manager, engaged in the risk problems, should be given two rights:
— the right of choice, which is to say the decision-making authority, necessary for the purpose of intended objective of risk capital investment;
— the right of manager’s or director’s responsibility, who take risk decisions in the achievement of, as it intensifies the interest.
The choice of risk management depends mainly on the director, but assistance and participation of risk manager in the choice of management method is obligatory and necessary.
For the policy-making of risk management it is necessary to make a special document called «Risk Management Business Plan».
It may consist of the following sections:
Financial ideology of enterprises in respect of risks, which is reflected in financial strategy and financial policy on the focal points of its activity.
Basic risk kinds are typical to business activity (risk portfolio).
Grouping of risks in probability of their origin and possible size of financial losses at the onset of risk events.
Recommended forms of risk neutralization with calculation of efficiency expenses.
Draft budget on the risk neutralization with calculation of efficiency expenses.
The project of events with an indication of their realization term and responsible persons on the risks neutralization and their monitoring.
The developed document allows to state principles and mechanisms of risk management policy and its effectiveness in the dense form.
The implementation of management policy of entrepreneurial risk is agreed with the business plan and provides a certain complex of measures:
Identification of particular risk kinds, connected directly with business activity;
The estimation of width and fidelity of information, necessary with the aim of determining the generalized set up of the risk level.
The choice and usage of corresponding valuation probability methods of the risk events onset.
Determination of dimensions of possible financial losses at the onset of risk event on particular risk kinds.
The investigation of factors affecting the level of entrepreneurial company risk.
The establishment of maximum allowable risk limit on the kind of entrepreneurial business and financial operations.
Determination of directions of negative consequences neutralization of a particular risk kind.
The choice and realization of internal neutralization mechanisms of negative consequences of particular risk kinds.
The choice implementation of external neutralization mechanisms of negative consequences of particular risk kinds.
Efficiency estimation of neutralization and organization of risk monitoring.
Altogether, the maintenance of economic growth of national economics is one of key tasks of economic state policy. Herewith, the economic growth in particular regions is not least important. Development of competent scientifically grounded measures of economic policy reflation is impossible without determination of factors, which determine the economic dynamics of both national economics as a whole, and economics of the region. In this connexion there is a modeling problem of economical regional growth and determination of its factors.
Business organizations make a substantial contribution into the implementation of economic growth in economics. The economic resilience of contemporary entrepreneurial business is primarily achieved by means of competitiveness provision on the basis of implementation of a sustainable development strategy, which include risk assessment and model development of their prevention, and decrease. Economic activity of business organizations is, which is connected with both external and internal environment, is the appraisal object of economic security. The objective of vital functions for the entrepreneurial business subjects is the raise of economic security of estimation subject in terms of demand analysis of society, market, opponent structures evaluation, development of practical business plan, both on short-term and long-term prospects.
It is necessary to perform risk valuation, consider all factors, which specify any risk types timely and reasonably, build an optimal model of risk management, make the most acceptable and efficient strategy and tactics of risk management in the course of achievement of formulated entrepreneurial objective for the achievement of the risk prevention objective, and risk minimization effects, risk management of any economic entity in the course of entrepreneurial business. The management tools, which allow to secure the achievement of stated objectives, are the monitoring of business organizations activity, financial accounting; management accounting, budgeting, controlling, marketing, logistics.
The leading role at the organization of risk management belongs to the financial manager, his psychological qualities. He is responsible for all consequences of capital risk investments. Risk manager has to rest upon theoretical skills and foresight, practical knowledge and contemporary economic and technological production concepts, consider the vast number of the models at the choice of optimal control risk model, which are as follows: determined, stochastic, playing, linguistic, analytical, discriminant factor models of bankruptcy risk forecasting activity, models of complex mark valuation of the financial position, models of bankruptcy diagnostics, forecasting models of financial solvency restoration, models of rating investment research, forecasting models of financial inability based on foreign sources (two-factor, five-factor models by E. Altmann, five-factor model by W. Beaver, five-factor models by Lis and Taffler), risk forecasting models of financial inability on the basis of native sources (two-factor model of bankruptcy forecasting by Leo Hao Suana, four-factor model of модель bankruptcy forecasting by A.D. Belikov), valuation models of planning results on the basis of various methods and factors.
It is definitely necessary to rest upon the accumulated experience in the entrepreneurial activities, as well as upon the most general fundamental laws of social conscience and society development.
We can use the obtained results of risk evaluation as a basic data for the elaboration of measures on the risk reduction and formation of risk controlling mechanism. We make use of both stereotyped, and original decisions in the selection of phase of means and methods for the risk management, which contain economically feasible recommendations and measures, and allow to manage risks in the course of entrepreneurial business.
Intuition and insight of a manager play a discrete role in the solution of risk tasks. Intuition allows to find adequate solutions of the problem spontaneously, unexpectedly, and without any logical premeditation. The intuitive decision is like inner insight, thought enlightenment, which reveals the essence of the studied problem. Insight is a conscious solution of a definite problem. Subjectively insight is experienced as a sudden flash of genius, comprehension. The decision is perceived very clearly at the moment of insight, but this clarity has a short-term nature quite often and needs a conscious fixation of the perceived decision.
A special place in the activity management system of business subjects is taken by the analysis of financing and operating activities, which is generally represented by storage means, transformation, and information use of financial nature for the achievement of the stated objectives of the business object’s sustained development. With its help it is possible to do the following:
— the estimate the current and prospective property and financial condition of the company;
— to estimate possible and the most reasonable development rates of the business organization from a perspective of their financial provision;
— to reveal affordable sources of funds and estimate the possibility and practicality of their mobilization;
— to anticipate the position of business subject at the capital market.
Development of contemporary business in the Russian economics also requires further management development. Providing that Russian management is developed in the direction of in-depth study of psychological management aspects, computer automation of management decision making on the ground of system approach, globalization accounting of information and economic area at the present stage, we may anticipate further management development on the following directions:
Balance of market and governmental regulation.
Wide use of strategy planning and management in the activity of business subjects.
Constant adjustment of economic entity objectives in response to changes in the external environment.
Achievement of strategic and operative goals of the company at the expense of optimum allocation of material, labour and financial resources on the principal directions of company’s activity.
Development of new management methods, which allow a business to adapt to changes of external environment in a more flexible way.
Sharp rise of the level of managers’ skills and abilities in the company management.
Usage of management optimal decisions in practice, selected on the ground of a thorough analysis of alternative choices in the problem solution.
Perfection of control structure at the expense of great functional decentralization.
Continuing concern on the further training of organization’s employees.
Maximization of innovations, economic and mathematical methods, computer systems.
Development of informational system, wide use of global information networks.
Attraction of all employees to the business management.